Good reason vs no reason

[cajun_mali]

There is no reason to believe Joran harmed Natalee.
There is very good reason to believe Joran killed Stephanie.

[wanderer]

We seem to agree on this also.

[K_Meine]

There is no reason to believe Joran harmed Natalee.
There is very good reason to believe Joran killed Stephanie.

That's an interesting point actually. If you look at the events separately they are somewhat dissimilar.

Natalee:
Joran made multiple and varying admissions and ultimately retracted them all. Her body was never found.

Stephany:
Her body was found and he confessed and told what happened.

The issue is they are not separate events and according to Joran he did Stephany in because of something Natalee related. Would Joran have killed Stephany if he returned and saw her going through his wallet? IMO yes. Joran may have not physically "harmed" Natalee as it's entirely possible she expired of her own doing. However, he did harm her if in fact he disposed of her body unnecessarily. IMO his killing Stephany highlights his propensity and ability to physically hurt people and thus provides more than ample reasoning to think that he did harm Natalee in some way,shape or form.

In the end it's seems pretty obvious Joran killed Stephany. What transpired with Natalee is bit more muddy but there is enough reason to be highly suspicious of his involvement.

[cajun_mali]

k, how would that benefit him? If she died, the best thing to do was to bring her to the hospital.

[K_Meine]

k, how would that benefit him? If she died, the best thing to do was to bring her to the hospital.

First off IMO Joran knows he is not a believable individual. If he showed up at some ER with a very ill or deceased Natalee in his arms he would likely be asked some questions he wasn't prepared to answer. Not only that but if he slipped Natalee a date rape drug or she was in receipt of some of his manly fluids he thinks nobody would believe his side of the story and rightfully so. IMO Natalee didn't merely expire on her own and her disappearance occurred as an act of deceit. At least I hope so. If she were tossed merely because of a guilty conscience that truly would be unfortunate.

[skepticynic]

I am on the fence still with his involvement with NH. Why? Because the Flores scene screams SLOPPY.

If i were going to kill someone after robbing them, why would I bring them where I was staying, where cameras and eyewitnesses can show me and my guest (and me leaving without my guest.) The scene was complete chaos, even the killing was sloppy.

Most profilers would call this a disorganized scene and that is a sign of inexperienced killers, or someone who is losing their marbles.

Compare to NH, who apparently still is missing with absolutely no trace. A killer who gains experience over the years does not become sloppy, as a rule.

(It is possible she died in his presence, it is also possible that Mrs. Morris was telling more truth than she was willing with her statement about "let's just say I saw her and leave it at that" or whatever phrasing she used...I am still stymied by the whole crew lawyering up the second they got home.)

[K_Meine]

I am on the fence still with his involvement with NH. Why? Because the Flores scene screams SLOPPY.

If i were going to kill someone after robbing them, why would I bring them where I was staying, where cameras and eyewitnesses can show me and my guest (and me leaving without my guest.) The scene was complete chaos, even the killing was sloppy.

Most profilers would call this a disorganized scene and that is a sign of inexperienced killers, or someone who is losing their marbles.

Compare to NH, who apparently still is missing with absolutely no trace. A killer who gains experience over the years does not become sloppy, as a rule.

(It is possible she died in his presence, it is also possible that Mrs. Morris was telling more truth than she was willing with her statement about "let's just say I saw her and leave it at that" or whatever phrasing she used...I am still stymied by the whole crew lawyering up the second they got home.)

IMO Joran is impulsive and not experienced. Whereas as a serial killer may gain precision in his methods over time I don't think Joran fits that profile. He also appears to be a substance abuser and when mixed with a fragile mental state that can be dangerous and likely was an issue with both Natalee and Stephany.

As far as the "lawyering up" goes by the MB folks it didn't look good on the surface but it still is not surprising. The sort of people in those kinds of communities would rather not have the Feds snooping around in their business coupled with idea that most people simply don't want to get involved. IMO the MB folks could have been more helpful by providing better disclosure about what actually transpired on that trip. To not further explain what "let's just say I saw her and leave it at that" meant doesn't make much sense to me. Either you saw her back at the hotel after Carlo's and Charlie's or you didn't. If you did Joran is potentially off the hook. Why not help a friend and an investigation and put this question to rest?

[yankee-in-france]

I am on the fence still with his involvement with NH. Why? Because the Flores scene screams SLOPPY.

If i were going to kill someone after robbing them, why would I bring them where I was staying, where cameras and eyewitnesses can show me and my guest (and me leaving without my guest.) The scene was complete chaos, even the killing was sloppy.

Most profilers would call this a disorganized scene and that is a sign of inexperienced killers, or someone who is losing their marbles.

Compare to NH, who apparently still is missing with absolutely no trace. A killer who gains experience over the years does not become sloppy, as a rule.

(It is possible she died in his presence, it is also possible that Mrs. Morris was telling more truth than she was willing with her statement about "let's just say I saw her and leave it at that" or whatever phrasing she used...I am still stymied by the whole crew lawyering up the second they got home.)

I am not sure that they lawyered up in the true sense of the phrase. These were young adults from affluent families where a family attorney is as common as a family doctor. Their parents may well have called the family attorney who gave very sage advice not to give statements and thus, they didn't. They listened to their parents and their attorneys. Too bad Joran didn't.

[skepticynic]

Unfortunately Joran was a bigger media whore than Beth ever could be. I think he loved being in the limelight even more than she did.

[yankee-in-france]

Unfortunately Joran was a bigger media whore than Beth ever could be. I think he loved being in the limelight even more than she did.

... yep, I agree ...... but Beth wasn't the prime suspect. I would think that prime suspects would want to distance themselves from a crime not continually place themselves right smack in the middle with unlimited scenarios that only point to them knowing the fate of the person who disappeared .... and then, of course, claim that they are just liars.

[K_Meine]

... yep, I agree ...... but Beth wasn't the prime suspect. I would think that prime suspects would want to distance themselves from a crime not continually place themselves right smack in the middle with unlimited scenarios that only point to them knowing the fate of the person who disappeared .... and then, of course, claim that they are just liars.

I'm kind of on the fence about this one. Whereas Joran and Beth both appeared to embrace the spotlight I think they did it for different reasons. Beth used it more as a way to get the word out and Joran not only as an attention seeking mechanism but as a release from a very deep seeded guilty conscience.

[cajun_mali]

How many times did Beth appear in the media voluntarily?

How many times did Joran appear in the media voluntarily?

[cajun_mali]

First off IMO Joran knows he is not a believable individual. If he showed up at some ER with a very ill or deceased Natalee in his arms he would likely be asked some questions he wasn't prepared to answer. Not only that but if he slipped Natalee a date rape drug or she was in receipt of some of his manly fluids he thinks nobody would believe his side of the story and rightfully so. IMO Natalee didn't merely expire on her own and her disappearance occurred as an act of deceit. At least I hope so. If she were tossed merely because of a guilty conscience that truly would be unfortunate.

Well, in the end Joran told anyone who'd pay what that person wanted.

Beth has no knowledge what happened to Natalee and I think she still believes 2k are involved.

Even you have to admit there was a big conspiracy to get Joran on something.

[K_Meine]

Well, in the end Joran told anyone who'd pay what that person wanted.

Beth has no knowledge what happened to Natalee and I think she still believes 2k are involved.

Even you have to admit there was a big conspiracy to get Joran on something.

Whether Joran actually was contributory in Natalee's disappearance or not is something we may never know. It appears to me that he wanted people to think that for some reason that he was so there were those who wanted to see him own up to what he professed. IMO it was not so much a conspiracy as it was making Joran responsible for his words.

[cajun_mali]

Whether Joran actually was contributory in Natalee's disappearance or not is something we may never know. It appears to me that he wanted people to think that for some reason that he was so there were those who wanted to see him own up to what he professed. IMO it was not so much a conspiracy as it was making Joran responsible for his words.

I don't think the sting had anything with making Joran responsible for his words. Joran has been guilty since the beginning, whether he had anything to do with Natalee's going missing or not.

Personally, I think an arrest on the federal sting would have saved Stephanie and gone a long way in clearing Joran's name. I'd love to find out who used his influence to pull that off.

[resigned]

Joran did the "stinging" - no good reason not to let sleeping dogs lie...except he was desperate for action...

According to the indictment, van der Sloot caused Beth Holloway to wire $15,000 from her bank in Birmingham to his account at a bank in the Netherlands. The indictment also charges that he caused her to wire $10,000 to lawyer John Q. Kelly in New York so that Kelly could later carry that money to Aruba and deliver it to van der Sloot in person. The indictment identifies Kelly as an advisor and legal representative of Beth Holloway who served as her intermediary with van der Sloot.

The indictment describes how van der Sloot’s scheme to defraud Natalee Holloway’s mother proceeded as follows:

After van der Sloot initially contacted Kelly and said he would reveal the location of Natalee Holloway’s remains for $250,000, he later agreed to lead Kelly to the site of her remains for $25,000. Once identification of the remains was confirmed, Beth Holloway was to pay the remaining $225,000 to van der Sloot.

Van der Sloot received the $25,000 from Beth Holloway and led Kelly to a specific site in Aruba. He identified the site as the location where Natalee Holloway’s remains were buried, although he knew that information was false.

Van der Sloot kept the $25,000, but later confirmed by e-mail that the information he had provided was “worthless.”

http://www.financialfraudlaw.com/lawblo ... rtion/1183

[K_Meine]

I don't think the sting had anything with making Joran responsible for his words. Joran has been guilty since the beginning, whether he had anything to do with Natalee's going missing or not.

Personally, I think an arrest on the federal sting would have saved Stephanie and gone a long way in clearing Joran's name. I'd love to find out who used his influence to pull that off.

As highlighted by Resigned post above, it was Joran who reached out to Beth and friends, not the other way around. My question is what did he do with all that money that was wired to him? I thought I read somewhere he told friends he didn't have any money and then he goes and steals Stephany's money. Maybe he's an addict.

[cajun_mali]

As highlighted by Resigned post above, it was Joran who reached out to Beth and friends, not the other way around. My question is what did he do with all that money that was wired to him? I thought I read somewhere he told friends he didn't have any money and then he goes and steals Stephany's money. Maybe he's an addict.

It's an accusation that it happened the way it was stated, not fact. Even a conviction wouldn't mean it happened in fact.

Stephanie and Natalee are 2 different issues.

[resigned]

It's an accusation that it happened the way it was stated, not fact. Even a conviction wouldn't mean it happened in fact.

Stephanie and Natalee are 2 different issues.

It's an accusation that it happened any other way than what the FBI is charging Joran with. If you never want to believe that he is guilty of anything even if he is convicted ..well, there ya go - he's won you over.

[resigned]

As highlighted by Resigned post above, it was Joran who reached out to Beth and friends, not the other way around. My question is what did he do with all that money that was wired to him? I thought I read somewhere he told friends he didn't have any money and then he goes and steals Stephany's money. Maybe he's an addict.

Believe it or not.......

<snipped>

ATA
In his statement to the PNP, Katherine Herrera Gronert, supervisory board game of the Atlantic City casino, said Van der Sloot "frequently lost an average of $ 4,000 per day" and know whether won a chance. She will be cited in the trial.


<snipped>

http://elcomercio.pe/lima/1269703/notic ... -der-sloot

[K_Meine]

It's an accusation that it happened the way it was stated, not fact. Even a conviction wouldn't mean it happened in fact.

Stephanie and Natalee are 2 different issues.

You mean to tell me everything that the media prints is not based on facts?

The truth is people will believe what they want to believe even if it doesn't make sense to someone else. That being said, I find it difficult, but not impossible, to believe that whomever reported that it was Joran who made the initial contact didn't check their facts. There is no gray there. Either he made the first contact or he didn't. To report it without being certain is just another lawsuit waiting to happen.

IMO Stephanie and Natalee aren't two different issues at all. Without the Natalee situation, the Stephanie situation would never have occurred. Joran has continued to profess his innocence (at least some days) in regards to Natalee yet he's professed to killing Stephanie because of some topic relating to Natalee. MAYBE he just offed her because he needed the money and it was an event in and unto itself. Unfortunately, Joran is the one who dragged Natalee's name back into the equation and that may be just so he could get a lighter term. He may not win a Nobel peace prize but he's a bright person who has thus far evaded several of his responsibilities to humanity.

[resigned]

Seth Meyers on SNL - paraphrasing.....


Nancy Grace suffered a wardrobe malfunction this week when she exposed a nipple during Dancing with the Stars. Grace claims she HAD to expose the nipple because she believes it knows something about the Natalee Holloway case that hasn't yet been told.



---

There is no good reason for Joran's behaviour. None. IMO

[K_Meine]

Seth Meyers on SNL - paraphrasing.....


Nancy Grace suffered a wardrobe malfunction this week when she exposed a nipple during Dancing with the Stars. Grace claims she HAD to expose the nipple because she believes it knows something about the Natalee Holloway case that hasn't yet been told.



---

There is no good reason for Joran's behaviour. None. IMO

Maybe he's just another victim of circumstance......

[resigned]

Maybe he's just another victim of circumstance......

Everybody's a victim these days - they weren't hugged enough - they were bullied as a child - they have a chemical imbalance that only the thrill of poker can cure..... blah blah blah - they do something stupid - just own up to it. What was it that wabbi used to "say"? - the truth only hurts for a little while - lies last forever....something like that.

[Eliza]

I miss Wabbi. That crazy cheese head.

And seedyrum. That crazy kid.

"People with nothing to hide, hide nothing." "Karin Janssen recuse yourself."