3) If it is not even possible, it can't be probable (likely).
With most things it does not take a lot of facts to know if it is possible. To know probability or likelihood takes facts or precedent.
Ok...I'm going to play devil's advocate here Doug. Please don't take this as what I believe ok?
1. It may not "appear" to be possible that Joran or someone else got rid of Natalee's body for whatever reason a person might think. Lack of time, unable to dig in the hard land, the tide of the ocean...whatever.
BUT...with new information, say we find out it was "possible" to dig on the island...somewhere that maybe isn't rock hard. Maybe Joran wasn't actually at home when he said he was. Maybe its possible he was able to access a boat.
2. It may not "appear" possible that Natalee ran away. Possible reasons, why would she plan it from Aruba, why would she drink so much, why would she go off with 3 boys, why wouldn't she simply write Beth a letter and say I can't take it...I'm leaving? But...again playing devil's advocate, if we got new evidence that customs showed a picture of her using a different passport, or she has been located in another country, etc. etc. then it would become possible.
Without the additional information...you just can't say if something is not even possible...it can't be probable. Unless what you are trying to say is to you (in your opinion) if with the information you now have something seems possible and/or probable...then ok...I get ya.
Otherwise...I'm still open to new information changing my opinions.
It is the very things we think we know, that keep us from learning what we should know.