Suppose Joran is innocent, but knows more than he's told...

[Black-Tulip]

... but it's so very necessary for your likes to continually berate those of us not worshipping Joran and the VDS ...

Who are "your likes"?? And who are "those of us"? Are you their elected mouthpiece as they can't speak for themselves? You all share the same opinion about everything?

You really love to polarize don't you?

[FloridaDoug]

Yep yep yep........ "Everything is "possible"...lol. On the other hand...probable and possible doesn't go hand in hand.

To be probable it must first be possible, so probable and possible do go hand in hand

[Linda in L.A.]

To be probable it must first be possible, so probable and possible do go hand in hand

Only if you are saying something is probable. We were discussing what was possible.

[FloridaDoug]

Yep yep yep........ "Everything is "possible"...lol. On the other hand...probable and possible doesn't go hand in hand.

To be probable it must first be possible, so probable and possible do go hand in hand

Only if you are saying something is probable. We were discussing what was possible.

Yes, and many things are not possible either, so probable and possible do go hand in hand

[Linda in L.A.]

Yes, and many things are not possible either, so probable and possible do go hand in hand

Ok...I'm getting confused. You say tomato...I say tomatoh. Something can be possible without being probable. Are we in agreement here? BUT...something may not be probable without being possible. Reason being...it could be possible...we just don't have enough facts to know if its possible or not.

[Black-Tulip]

Ok...I'm getting confused. You say tomato...I say tomatoh. Something can be possible without being probable. Are we in agreement here? BUT...something may not be probable without being possible. Reason being...it could be possible...we just don't have enough facts to know if its possible or not.

Not possible is having a probability equal zero.

Why so complicated??

[Linda in L.A.]

Not possible is having a probability equal zero.

Why so complicated??

Yes...but what's the probability if something IS possible? You are seeing it from one side, while I'm seeing it from another I think. Kind of like the argument of the glass being half full.

In other words...just because "we" (meaning posters) don't believe something is possible...doesn't mean its not possible. For instance, I don't believe its possible Natalee ran away. Probability factor for me is I don't believe she could pull it off.

Others don't believe its possible Joran disposed of Natalee's body (or got help to do it). Probability factor for some, they don't believe Joran could pull it off.

Without ALL the facts...any scenario is possible. SOMETHING happened to Natalee right? So whichever scenario a person believes (without having all the facts) could be both possible and probable to them.

[Black-Tulip]

Yes...but what's the probability if something IS possible? You are seeing it from one side, while I'm seeing it from another I think. Kind of like the argument of the glass being half full.

In other words...just because "we" (meaning posters) don't believe something is possible...doesn't mean its not possible. For instance, I don't believe its possible Natalee ran away. Probability factor for me is I don't believe she could pull it off.

Others don't believe its possible Joran disposed of Natalee's body (or got help to do it). Probability factor for some, they don't believe Joran could pull it off.

Without ALL the facts...any scenario is possible. SOMETHING happened to Natalee right? So whichever scenario a person believes (without having all the facts) could be both possible and probable to them.

Of course it's possible Natalee ran away. Has happened before with people who disappeared. Her life seemed perfect looking from the outside. Somehow I get the impression we never got to see the real Natalee.

It's more likely she was the victim of a crime. Killed or disposed of after an accidental death, which is still a crime.

She could even be alive, everything is still possible. However I find it very unlikely, for many reasons, that Joran committed the crime (kill/dispose the body).

To me Beth is just as much a liar as Joran.

[sarge]

Of course it's possible Natalee ran away. Has happened before with people who disappeared. Her life seemed perfect looking from the outside. Somehow I get the impression we never got to see the real Natalee.

It's more likely she was the victim of a crime. Killed or disposed of after an accidental death, which is still a crime.

She could even be alive, everything is still possible. However I find it very unlikely, for many reasons, that Joran committed the crime (kill/dispose the body).

To me Beth is just as much a liar as Joran.

There is no motive for a murder and while it is possible, I agree with you that she more than likely was disposed of after an accidental death. It does appear though that it is not considered much of a crime as far as time to be served for body disposal. I just think somebody panicked and knew someone who could get the body out of there and long gone. She could have been put on a boat that was already leaving for some other destination and there was no way of ever finding her. It is possible but not probably that what really happened will ever be revealed. The person or persons who slipped her body on their boat may have been paid well.

[WordsofWisdom]

The person or persons who slipped her body on their boat may have been paid well.

IF true, who would have that kind of money?
Not the VDS family.
But the Twitty family would.

[sarge]

IF true, who would have that kind of money?
Not the VDS family.
But the Twitty family would.

Sometimes people have to raise money in a hurry when their child gets arrested or into trouble. I am not saying that this happened. We are saying that anything is possible.
Oh, man...........what possible scenario could you imagine where the Twitty family would pay someone to take Natalee's body away?
Sorry,WOW, you did not say that they did, just that they would have that kind of money.

[FloridaDoug]

Yes, and many things are not possible either, so probable and possible do go hand in hand

1) Ok...I'm getting confused. You say tomato...I say tomatoh.

2) Something can be possible without being probable. Are we in agreement here?

3) BUT...something may not be probable without being possible. Reason being...it could be possible...we just don't have enough facts to know if its possible or not.

1)

2) Yes

3) If it is not even possible, it can't be probable (likely).

With most things it does not take a lot of facts to know if it is possible. To know probability or likelihood takes facts or precedent.

[Linda in L.A.]

1)

2) Yes

3) If it is not even possible, it can't be probable (likely).

With most things it does not take a lot of facts to know if it is possible. To know probability or likelihood takes facts or precedent.

Ok...I'm going to play devil's advocate here Doug. Please don't take this as what I believe ok?

1. It may not "appear" to be possible that Joran or someone else got rid of Natalee's body for whatever reason a person might think. Lack of time, unable to dig in the hard land, the tide of the ocean...whatever.

BUT...with new information, say we find out it was "possible" to dig on the island...somewhere that maybe isn't rock hard. Maybe Joran wasn't actually at home when he said he was. Maybe its possible he was able to access a boat.

2. It may not "appear" possible that Natalee ran away. Possible reasons, why would she plan it from Aruba, why would she drink so much, why would she go off with 3 boys, why wouldn't she simply write Beth a letter and say I can't take it...I'm leaving? But...again playing devil's advocate, if we got new evidence that customs showed a picture of her using a different passport, or she has been located in another country, etc. etc. then it would become possible.

Without the additional information...you just can't say if something is not even possible...it can't be probable. Unless what you are trying to say is to you (in your opinion) if with the information you now have something seems possible and/or probable...then ok...I get ya.

Otherwise...I'm still open to new information changing my opinions.

[luvslalom]

IF true, who would have that kind of money?
Not the VDS family.
But the Twitty family would.

No one knows how many immediate assets the VDS or Beth's family had unless of course they were working in the bank or been told by the persons involved, so why are you making that statement as fact?

Looking at both for arguments sake, Anita and Paulus both had better paying work than did Beth and Jug.

[Gregor]

<snip>

Looking at both for arguments sake, Anita and Paulus both had better paying work than did Beth and Jug.

I doubt that.

[FloridaDoug]

Ok...I'm going to play devil's advocate here Doug. Please don't take this as what I believe ok?

1. It may not "appear" to be possible that Joran or someone else got rid of Natalee's body for whatever reason a person might think. Lack of time, unable to dig in the hard land, the tide of the ocean...whatever.

BUT...with new information, say we find out it was "possible" to dig on the island...somewhere that maybe isn't rock hard. Maybe Joran wasn't actually at home when he said he was. Maybe its possible he was able to access a boat.

2. It may not "appear" possible that Natalee ran away. Possible reasons, why would she plan it from Aruba, why would she drink so much, why would she go off with 3 boys, why wouldn't she simply write Beth a letter and say I can't take it...I'm leaving?

3. But...again playing devil's advocate, if we got new evidence that customs showed a picture of her using a different passport, or she has been located in another country, etc. etc. then it would become possible.

Without the additional information...you just can't say if something is not even possible...it can't be probable. Unless what you are trying to say is to you (in your opinion) if with the information you now have something seems possible and/or probable...then ok...I get ya.

Otherwise...I'm still open to new information changing my opinions.

1) By adding "for whatever reason a person might think" you are adding a constraint on the possibility. By "possible" I was looking only if the action or activity could or could not be done without violating physical laws or laws of nature.

2) Here I think you are mixing or confusing possible with probable. It was certainly possible for Natalee to run away without violating physical laws or laws of nature. That does not mean it was probable or likely.

3) If Natalee was found in another country she may or may not have run away to get there. More information would be needed.

[WordsofWisdom]

Ok...I'm going to play devil's advocate here Doug. Please don't take this as what I believe ok?

1. It may not "appear" to be possible that Joran or someone else got rid of Natalee's body for whatever reason a person might think. Lack of time, unable to dig in the hard land, the tide of the ocean...whatever.

BUT...with new information, say we find out it was "possible" to dig on the island...somewhere that maybe isn't rock hard. Maybe Joran wasn't actually at home when he said he was. Maybe its possible he was able to access a boat.

2. It may not "appear" possible that Natalee ran away. Possible reasons, why would she plan it from Aruba, why would she drink so much, why would she go off with 3 boys, why wouldn't she simply write Beth a letter and say I can't take it...I'm leaving? But...again playing devil's advocate, if we got new evidence that customs showed a picture of her using a different passport, or she has been located in another country, etc. etc. then it would become possible.

Without the additional information...you just can't say if something is not even possible...it can't be probable. Unless what you are trying to say is to you (in your opinion) if with the information you now have something seems possible and/or probable...then ok...I get ya.

Otherwise...I'm still open to new information changing my opinions.

#1 presumes she is dead.
it also presumes facts not in evidence and ignores the facts that are.

#2 Presumes that:
A. Beth did not receive any notification from Natalee.
B. That Nat would have had to plan it from Aruba.
C. That the plan was to leave that night.
D. That she needed a passport.

And of course,
We would not know that.

[WordsofWisdom]

Ok...I'm going to play devil's advocate here Doug. Please don't take this as what I believe ok?

1. It may not "appear" to be possible that Joran or someone else got rid of Natalee's body for whatever reason a person might think. Lack of time, unable to dig in the hard land, the tide of the ocean...whatever.

BUT...with new information, say we find out it was "possible" to dig on the island...somewhere that maybe isn't rock hard. Maybe Joran wasn't actually at home when he said he was. Maybe its possible he was able to access a boat.

Ya know, Linda... this is exactly what Beth did for months.... only she attempted to manufacture evidence and bribe witness' to achieve her "what if's" and "possibilities" scenarios.

Once assembled she would go on television and proclaim it as a fact. (ex: PVDS at McDonalds at 4:00am.) But, as Beth found out the hard way, her PREVIOUS lies, and the truth kept getting in the way of her ever evolving story.

[cajun_mali]

Years.

Ya know, Linda... this is exactly what Beth did for months.... only she attempted to manufacture evidence and bribe witness' to achieve her "what if's" and "possibilities" scenarios.

Once assembled she would go on television and proclaim it as a fact. (ex: PVDS at McDonalds at 4:00am.) But, as Beth found out the hard way, her PREVIOUS lies, and the truth kept getting in the way of her ever evolving story.

[WordsofWisdom]

Years.

True.

[PufPuf93]

I would wager that Joran has told law enforcement things that we internet posters have never considered.

I would also wager that Joran does not always lie.

I would wager Jug and his pals know more than Beth.

[iquitos]

bets!

[K Hemingway]

I would wager that Joran has told law enforcement things that we internet posters have never considered.

I would also wager that Joran does not always lie.

I would wager Jug and his pals know more than Beth.

I wouldn't bet against any of those wagers for all the tea in Michelle Malkin's back yard parties.